ASCEND.

Project Success Evaluator

Calculate true project investment. Manage portfolio risk. Make informed decisions.

Epic Definition

Define what "complete" means - include all objectives and deliverables

Complexity Assessment

Easy
2×
Clear path ahead
Medium
3×
Some unknowns
Hard
5×
High complexity
Very Hard
8×
Breaking ground
Impossible
15×
Moonshot

Success Target

95%
80% - Acceptable Risk 90% - Balanced 100% - Full Certainty
Lower certainty = fewer iterations needed = lower investment. 100% guarantees success but requires maximum investment.

Resource Planning

Core team required. Add specialists or support resources as needed.
Resource Type
Team Size
Total Hours
Hourly Rate ($)
Core Team
Specialists
Support

Project Dependencies

If this project fails, which other projects are affected?
Blocking other projects
Failure will delay 2-3 dependent projects (+50% risk)
Critical path item
Failure cascades to entire program (+100% risk)

Reality Check Results

Initial Estimate
$0
Happy path only
Investment for 95%
$0
At target certainty
Total Hours
0
Including iterations
Iterations i An iteration is a complete attempt at the project. Each iteration includes planning, execution, testing, and learning. Failed iterations provide crucial insights that improve the next attempt's success rate.
0
To reach target

Single Attempt Success Rate

0%

This is why multiple iterations may be needed for your target certainty

Investment Breakdown

Portfolio Analysis

Understanding why you can't do 10 ambitious projects simultaneously - resource allocation reality.

$0
Total Investment
0
Active Projects
0%
Portfolio Risk
2-3
Recommended Focus

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Scenario Comparison

Save multiple scenarios to compare them side-by-side.